After an emotional and exhausting year and a half of fear and frustration, waiting for the end of the global pandemic, our prospects for returning to some semblance of normal, pre-pandemic life appear worse than ever. The daily count of confirmed new infections continues to climb, higher than ever, and the virus now appears to be out of control. As if this were not enough, we’re in the middle of more than one existential crisis.  Unprecedented rains continue to pummel Japan, triggering floods and landslides, and all of this is most likely the result of a global climate crisis that we recently learned has reached the first point of no return, promising that the next three decades will bring most of the planet even deeper into climate hell.

Things look bleak to say the least. 

It’s no wonder more and more people are expressing increased frustration and anger. People are tired. Japanese who have enjoyed a lifetime of access to relatively effective, inexpensive healthcare are now finding themselves being turned away from hospitals and doctors after contracting the virus. The Suga administration’s decision to hospitalize only severe COVID-19 cases, leaving others to recuperate at home, has many confused and concerned. Confused after watching the government coordinate medical and COVID related resources for nearly 90,000 let into Japan for the Tokyo olympics. Concerned because they have no options to rely on while sick at home if they take a turn for the worst.

It’s not surprising that trust in leadership has broken down.

Everything that is happening goes against Japan’s brand. Japan has built a global reputation for social harmony, and Japan Inc. has been considered by many authorities worldwide as the embodiment of quality management and continuous improvement. But this reputation is now in danger.

The early stages of the pandemic brought economic shock to Japan as the income flow of external tourism instantly dried up. While lockdowns like those in California and elsewhere never happened in Japan, public and private schools did close entirely and the government asked businesses to begin switching to work-from-home when possible. In hindsight, it appears that the school closures and other efforts may have helped curb infections, but schools soon reopened, and businesses quickly resumed their normal commutes and in-office operations. How could a return to “normal” happen so fast, while the virus continued spreading, and months before a vaccine was even announced? The answer is, unfortunately, simple.

The direction changed.

Government communication and messaging switched from a focus on personal safety and safety of the community, to a message focusing on something else: The health of the economy.

Government funded campaigns like “Go to Travel” and “Go to Eat” encouraged Japanese citizens and residents to travel and eat out. Again, in hindsight, it’s clear that these steps, even if they had a near-term benefit (which there is no accounting for) only appeared to help generate the next wave of infections. Each time, as the infections began to climb, the government would declare a state of emergency, or a “quasi” state of emergency, and each time, it appeared that people took it less and less seriously. Just take the prior Golden Week and New Year’s holidays as good examples of Japanese society largely ignoring the virus, even in the absence of a vaccine. Each of those holidays was followed by two of the largest infection waves prior to the one we are presently in.

The pinnacle of the messaging change came with the olympics. Originally delayed in 2020 for one year, presumably with the expectation that we would be on top of the virus and life would have returned to normal by 2021, the olympics was constantly a talking point in the news. Life didn’t return to normal in 2021, and with the emergence of COVID mutations, it was hard to imagine how a country facing the same challenges as everyone else could still invest and direct the resources to hold the olympics. Even if most of the $15.4 billion dollars was sunk cost, in a crisis like a global pandemic time is the most valuable asset. And each day, starting with the opening ceremony on July 23, the COVID case numbers rose. And rose higher. And rose even higher. During the two and a half weeks the olympics was held, the IOC and JOC made it a point to communicate to the nation that the olympics had “nothing to do with the rise in COVID cases.” They were missing the point. What people wanted to know was: What are we going to do about the rise in COVID cases?

We are now in the 4th wave of COVID infections since the pandemic began, and we are again at the same critical point of urgency where slowing virus transmission and accelerating vaccinations is once again the focus. Only this time, with the Delta mutant having taken the lead in infections, the fourth wave is poised to infect everyone, including the 70% still unvaccinated (some 88 million people) and even infect fully vaccinated individuals who, while mostly protected from serious and life-threatening illness, would only serve to spread the virus faster - to their families, coworkers, and anyone they come into contact with.

If Japan’s healthcare system is reeling with 20,000 new daily cases, imagine what happens when it hits 200,000.

It’s time for a serious plan

So what can we do? What can we do when we’re neck-deep and it begins to feel like there’s nothing that can be done? There’s been talk of formulating an “exit strategy,” but that’s putting the cart in front of the horse. An exit strategy could mean and IPO, and it could also mean a bankruptcy. What we need is a plan. A plan that maximizes the desired outcomes. Minimize the bad and maximize the good.

In a situation like this, we can’t assume anything. 

Is there a plan?  If there is a plan, what is the process behind the plan?  Is there a process?  It’s critical to assume nothing.  We stop and review.  Because no matter how bad things are, nothing good comes from just assuming the worst, giving up and continuing in the same direction.  If we don’t have a plan, or if we’re not sure one exists, we start with the process cycle.

The process cycle

FIRST, we need a process for planning.  This is where the process cycle comes in.  The process cycle is natural.  It’s like breathing.  Some motivational speakers have tapped into parts of the process cycle to explain fundamental truths about how we can operate better as humans and as groups of humans, whether it’s businesses or communities, and this extends into societies and the human race. Simon Sinek focuses on the first step, purpose, or as Simon has popularized, “start with why.”

Start with Purpose

We do start with purpose.  What is the reason we are taking action?  Why are we doing it?  Purpose can be really, really simple, or it can be be articulated in a high level framework that serves as a guide for the rest of the process.  Everything we do moving forward, we’ll ask the question, “is this consistent with our purpose?”

Define Expected Results

Next, we must be exactingly clear on what results we expect when we’re done.  Results are the metrics we’ll use to know whether or not we moved the needle in the right direction - according to our purpose.  Metrics aren’t the purpose- they’re just a way of measuring whether or not we’re on track.  Without a target, how does an archer know how good their aim is?  How good their shot is?  How consistently good their shot is?

Identify Steps

Next comes the steps.  These are the actions that need to be taken to achieve the results.  This is where most people start, but starting here would be misguided.  With purpose as a compass and metrics as a measure of impact, possibilities can be explored to determine which ones might work, and how interrelationships may even influence how sequence could impact results.  Just like the smallest dose of black pepper extract dramatically changes (increases) the absorption of tumeric, some preceding actions may unintuitively have an incredible impact on results of following actions.  This is where bringing skilled, competent, creative, passionate and experienced minds from multiple disciplines together matters.

Assemble Resources

Which brings us to resources.  Politicians are often the worst choice of resource to lead an assault against a pandemic.  Why?  because they are creatures focused on short-term cycles measured by election results.  They play a finite game that is about winning at the polls, and winning at the polls is about appeasing and influencing the moods and minds of voters.

Does this mean that politicians cannot also be leaders?  Of course it doesn’t mean that.  It’s possible for a politician to truly understands the needs of her constituents - the people they were elected to serve - and ensures their direction and decision making is always in complete alignment with their constituents priorities.  But sometimes this means making difficult decisions that won’t please everyone in the short-term, and sometimes doing the right thing may make the majority of their constituents disappointed or confused and even angry in the short term.  This is where communication and empathy is critical.  

There is no way to fake it.  Communication takes skill and experience.  Writers can help you with style, but if the leader doesn’t share and truly own the priorities of their constituents, they will in essence be speaking a different language.  Communication also starts at the very beginning of the planning process, not after it.  

Empathy comes from the heart. You either have it, or you don’t.  The foundation of true empathy starts is sharing the same priorities. Real empathy results from relating to deeply understanding the impact that successes and failures have on the people we care about.  If you don’t truly live for service, if you don’t truly share the feelings of those you serve, they will all know.  

The people behind executing the steps of the plan must collectively have the knowledge, the skills, the type of thinking, the tools, the experience and the diversity necessary to execute the plan.

Last but not Least, Review

The last step in the process cycle is review.  In a complex situation like the pandemic, where the game continuously changes due to variables beyond our control - virus mutation, weather, individual and societal fatigue, economic impact, engrained tradition in how we live, educate and work - review must be a continuous process.  Continuous review, adjustment and improvement has been part of Japanese culture for centuries, and is lived every minute of every day in practice by shokunin, craftspersons. After World War II, individuals including Dr. Joe Juran and Edward Deming re-introduced the concepts of  continuous improvement and quality to Japanese organizations who needed to operate at a massive scale. 

What Could A Plan to Stop COVID-19 in Japan Look Like?

Let’s first make some assumptions, beginning with the Process Cycle:

The plan PURPOSE

Preserve and protect the lives of everyone living in Japan throughout and after the pandemic.

The EXPECTED RESULTS

1. Maximize the physical health of everyone living in Japan by A) preventing new infections and B) helping those infected recover successfully and C) ensuring health care resources are organized to meet the need of the current and forecasted situations and D) accelerate the vaccination schedule to complete within 10% the time of the original forecast.

2. Maximize the mental health of everyone living in Japan by identifying the major near-term and long-term societal pressures and problems resulting from the pandemic, exposed by the pandemic or made worse by the pandemic, and identifying both existing and new solutions that must be invested in to solve these pressures and problems, recognizing that a healthy society is key to all aspects of future country-wide performance - happiness, population stability, economic prosperity and future innovation.

3. Economic recovery (will only happen) by first and foremost focusing on #1 and #2 above.

4. By delivering on #1, #2 and #3, we hope to gain the confidence and unmatched satisfaction of Japanese citizens and residents in their country’s leadership.

Each of the above expected results would have measurable key performance metrics.

Take the following STEPS immediately

In order to accomplish the above expected results:

1. To prevent new infections, we will immediately stop all group contact beyond the immediate family unit and those organizations that support individuals without families. This includes physically closing all schools, stopping all sports and club activities, closing all non-essential shopping venues, and we will mandate remote work with only exceptions where it is impossible and/or essential during the pandemic. We recognize that this will lead to secondary problems for many adults and children based on their available resources, so we will mobilize resources to find solutions to these problems. This includes child care, remote education and learning, food and nourishment, and basic income support for those who no longer can provide for themselves.

2. We believe Japan has the skilled, competent, passionate professionals necessary to step up to the needs of those that are sick, as well as the needs for hands to help accelerate vaccinations. We will immediately take steps to remove barriers inherent in the current system, including rapid certification of nurses and long-term care workers to administer vaccinations.

3. We will partner with experts in cold logistics and distribution to create 1000X more vaccination venues in order to achieve 100% vaccination within 10% of the original time frame. We will leverage the best cold controlled secure shippers including Kuroneko-Yamato, as well as Japan’s network of conbini who have the facilities and distribution channel to rapidly reach the entire population of Japan. WHY we haven’t used the conbini and the masterful logistics of Japan’s cool (read = COLD) transport is mind-boggling. There are nurses everywhere in Japan, and they are awesome. Instead of making them secretaries to doctors, reverse the roles. Have the nurses administer the shots and the doctors available, one for every 25 or 50 nurses, to deal with the 0.5% that has some kind of reaction or a question.

The above steps are examples, each of which would tie in directly to the expected results, in service to the purpose.

Japan has the Resources

The resources are here. Japan is one of, if not the most creative, passionate group of people on the planet. The Japanese are masters of the pivot. The economic miracle of Japan was not an accident. It was the result of smart, passionate people with sheer, unstoppable will to recover, survive and thrive.

We have more and better tools than ever today for leaders to communicate with, engage with and learn from their communities. True leaders can and should lead by serving.

• Infographics have been used over the past several years in multiple countries - to create false confidence or false urgency. Instead, use the same potentially misleading infographics to teach the population how to look at data critically, to see how Japan’s vaccination rate really compares to other countries, so people can see for themselves where the problems exist, and can begin thinking about solutions.

• Use Twitter and other social media to ask EVERYONE in the country for ideas to solve problems.

• We have an education level in this country that vastly exceeds what it was a century ago, 50 years ago, even 20 years ago. I believe 100% that for every single social problem that exists in Japan, there are at least 100 people out there with valid, even novel solutions. Maybe 1,000 people.

And this bring us to why this is so critically important.

More than creating new problems, COVID-19 has just revealed where our existing problems, habits and traditions are not serving us well. For example, we have the technology to transform the way we educate, but the teachers and bureaucracy don’t know how to change to make distributed learning better for the children of Japan than traditional learning. Could we eliminate bullying? Could we democratize the education process and give all children access to equal resources? Could we find ways of making education more accessible to those impaired who need better access? Can we tackle income disparity while we’re at it? We have to. Can we even help solve the climate problem will doing all of this? ABSOLUTELY YES! All of the above. But it can’t happen, it will not happen, until we stop and say, “what if we try something different?”

We must drop “when can we go back to the way things were?” from our language. That ship has sailed. To go back to the way things were, you better be prepared to swim out into the ocean of chaos and go find the ship. Good luck, because it’s not happening unless you find your own island to declare uncontested, isolated dominance over.

Once our leadership stops trying to convince us (for any reason) that things will get back to normal, we can all face facts and be pissed off. We will not like it. But it is reality. And we can and must make the most out of it.

There is an even bigger opportunity beyond Japan in doing so. One that benefits Japan and can restore Japan to its forger global greatness and beyond.

Japan CAN SET A NEW STANDARD. Quality management. Hygiene. Continuous improvement. In attacking a pandemic head-on, Japan can take this opportunity to leverage transformation, not innovation, as the agent of change toward a brighter future.

These can be the new cultural exports that results in Japan taking steps to help lead the world in a new direction that we desperately need right now and into the future.

So are we going to beat this thing, or haVE the JapanESE COLLECTIVELY and completely lost their mojo?